Self-Critical Zone

[ʌnˈsɝː.tən.ti]

Related terms: Ambivalence, Climate Pathways, Eschatology, Models, Pre-Traumatic Stress Disorder, Probabilistic Language, Simulation, Umwelt (German), Unpredictability

In contrast to »certainty«, a stasis in which facts are settled, »uncertainty« describes the awareness that the understanding of something is incomplete. While mathematical models are very precise in assigning certainty, ordinary language remains very ambiguous and ill-equipped to communicate likelihoods and certainties. This poses a great challenge in understanding and speaking about the risks of climate change. In order to communicate the probable pathways in which the climate is moving and to make different models comparable, climate scientists have coded a standardized terminology to assign probabilities.

Climate science describes three types of uncertainties: 
●       Unpredictability: changes in political systems
●       Structural Uncertainty: incomplete frameworks or models 
●       Value Uncertainty: missing or partial parameters, resolution, or data in models

The chance of an outcome occurring:
●       99–100%: virtually certain
●       90–100%: very likely
●       66–100%: likely
●       33–66%: about as likely as not
●       0–33%: unlikely
●       0–10%: very unlikely
●       0–1 %: exceptionally unlikely